People and places: understanding geographical accuracy in administrative data from the census and healthcare systems

Administrative systems such as health care registration are of increasing importance in providing information for statistical, research, and policy purposes. There is thus a pressing need to understand better the detailed relationship between population characteristics as recorded in such systems and conventional censuses. This paper explores these issues using the unique Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS). It takes the 2001 Census enumeration as a benchmark and analyses the social, demographic and spatial patterns of mismatch with the health register at individual level. Descriptive comparison is followed by multivariate and multilevel analyses which show that approximately 25% of individuals are reported to be in different addresses and that age, rurality, education, and housing type are all important factors. This level of mismatch appears to be maintained over time, as earlier migrants who update their address details are replaced by others who have not yet done so. In some cases, apparent mismatches seem likely to reflect complex multi-address living arrangements rather than data error

Towards NLP-Based Conceptual Modeling Frameworks

This paper presents preliminary research using Natural Language Processing (NLP) to support the development of conceptual modeling frameworks. NLP-based frameworks are intended to lower the barrier of entry for non-modelers to develop models and to facilitate communication across disciplines considering simulations in research efforts. NLP drives conceptual modeling in two ways. Firstly, it attempts to automate the generation of conceptual models and simulation specifications, derived from non-modelers’ narratives, while standardizing the conceptual modeling process and outcome. Secondly, as the process is automated, it is simpler to replicate and be followed by modelers and non-modelers. This allows for using a common process and generating similar “blueprints” facilitating communication and collaboration efforts. Overall, NLP presents an opportunity for the M&S community to engage with stakeholders and scholars across domains in the simulation development process, lowering entry barriers and increasing participation

Administrative data quality: Investigating record-level address accuracy in the Northern Ireland health register

Many national statistical institutes (NSIs) are seeking to supplement or replace their traditional population census with a methodology underpinned by administrative sources. Health service register data are key in this regard owing to their high population coverage; it is therefore important to improve understanding of data quality in this administrative source. This study investigated the factors associated with record-level address data mismatch between the Northern Ireland (NI) Health Card Registration System (HCRS) and the 2011 Census, using the NI Longitudinal Study (NILS). Address information in the form of anonymised Unique Property Reference Number (XUPRN) was available for circa 334,000 NILS members with census returns in 2001 and 2011, which provided a benchmark to assess XUPRN accuracy in their linked HCRS record for comparable time points. Multinomial logistic regression revealed a significantly greater likelihood of address mismatch in the HCRS for: males; young adults; individuals with no limiting long-term illness; migrants in the year prior to each census; and residents of communal establishments. Identification of population groups affected by poor quality address information in administrative sources can assist NSIs with the development and implementation of methodological improvements to ensure that official population statistics generated from these sources are fit for purpose

An Opportunistic Assessment of the Impact of Squirrelpox Disease Outbreaks upon a Red Squirrel Population Sympatric with Grey Squirrels in Wales

SIMPLE SUMMARY: In Europe, squirrelpox virus is carried by non-native grey squirrels and spread into native red squirrel populations. The virus causes a large proportion of infected red squirrels to die and contributes to local declines and the replacement by grey squirrels. There are relatively few published studies quantifying the impact of disease amongst red squirrels. We present findings from a short-term study in north Wales, United Kingdom. ABSTRACT: Native red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) persisted in the coastal mainland woodlands of northern Gwynedd whilst sympatric with an invasive grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) population suppressed by culling. Squirrelpox disease in the red squirrel population was recorded in 2017 and 2020/21. An autumn 2020 outbreak was associated with only 17.4% of animals caught and marked in the preceding June known to be present in March 2021. Despite an opportunistic data collection lacking the rigour of empirical experimental design, we observed low local survival rates similar to previously published accounts reported during major squirrelpox outbreaks. The use of a conservation dog to detect red squirrel carcasses resulted in positive detection and confirmation of a temporal and spatial expansion of one disease outbreak. The study is the first in Wales to use conservation dogs and the findings reinforce the vital strategic importance of geographical isolation reducing sympatry of red with grey squirrels in European regions where the introduced congener is a source of the squirrelpox infection

Takotsubo cardiomyopathy with severe bradyarrhythmia following epidural insertion

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Adenovirus: an emerging factor in red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris conservation

1. Adenovirus is an emerging threat to red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris conservation, but confirming clinically significant adenovirus infections in red squirrels is challenging. Rapid intestinal autolysis after death in wild animals frequently obscures pathology characteristic of the disease in animals found dead. 2. We review the available literature to determine current understanding of both subclinical and clinically significant adenovirus infections in free-living wild and captive red squirrel populations. 3. Benefits of scientific testing for adenovirus incorporating both transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technologies are compared and contrasted. We favour viral particle detection using TEM in animals exhibiting enteropathy at post-mortem and the use of PCR to detect subclinical cases where no enteric abnormalities are observed. 4. Adenoviral infections associated with re-introduction studies are evaluated by examination of sporadic cases in wild populations and of data from captive collections used to service such studies. 5. The paucity of data available on adenovirus infection in grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis populations is documented, and we highlight that although subclinical virus presence is recorded in several locations in Great Britain and in Italy, no clinically significant disease cases have been detected in the species thus far. 6. Current speculation about potential interspecific infection between sciurids and other woodland rodents such as wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus is examined. Where subclinical adenovirus presence has been detected in sympatric populations using the same point food sources, husbandry methods may be used to diminish the potential for cross-infection. 7. Our findings highlight the importance of controlling disease in red squirrel populations by using clearly defined scientific methods. In addition, we propose hypothetical conservation benefits of restricting contact rates between red squirrels and sympatric grey squirrels and of limiting competition from other woodland rodent species

Compensation between CSF1R+ macrophages and Foxp3+ Treg cells drives resistance to tumor immunotherapy.

Redundancy and compensation provide robustness to biological systems but may contribute to therapy resistance. Both tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) and Foxp3+ regulatory T (Treg) cells promote tumor progression by limiting antitumor immunity. Here we show that genetic ablation of CSF1 in colorectal cancer cells reduces the influx of immunosuppressive CSF1R+ TAMs within tumors. This reduction in CSF1-dependent TAMs resulted in increased CD8+ T cell attack on tumors, but its effect on tumor growth was limited by a compensatory increase in Foxp3+ Treg cells. Similarly, disruption of Treg cell activity through their experimental ablation produced moderate effects on tumor growth and was associated with elevated numbers of CSF1R+ TAMs. Importantly, codepletion of CSF1R+ TAMs and Foxp3+ Treg cells resulted in an increased influx of CD8+ T cells, augmentation of their function, and a synergistic reduction in tumor growth. Further, inhibition of Treg cell activity either through systemic pharmacological blockade of PI3Kδ, or its genetic inactivation within Foxp3+ Treg cells, sensitized previously unresponsive solid tumors to CSF1R+ TAM depletion and enhanced the effect of CSF1R blockade. These findings identify CSF1R+ TAMs and PI3Kδ-driven Foxp3+ Treg cells as the dominant compensatory cellular components of the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment, with implications for the design of combinatorial immunotherapies.D. Gyori was funded by a research grant from Karus Therapeutics. E.L. Lim was supported by a Yousef Jameel Scholarship (Cambridge Trust). R. Roychoudhuri and K. Okkenhaug received institute support from Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (BBS/E/B/000 -C0407, -C0409, -C0427 and -C0428). K. Okkenhaug was also supported by Wellcome Trust grant 095198/Z/10/Z. L.R. Stephens and P.T. Hawkins were supported by and institute grant from the BBSRC (BB/J004456/1). R. Roychoudhuri is supported by the Wellcome Trust/Royal Society (Grant 105663/Z/14/Z), the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Grant BB/N007794/1), and Cancer Research UK (Grant C52623/A22597)

Invasive genetic rescue: dispersal following repeated culling reinforces the genetic diversity of an invasive mammal

Since its introduction from the United States in 1876, the invasive North American Eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) has contributed to the decline of the native Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) in Britain. The aim of this study was to assess the overall impact of repeated control efforts carried out between 2011 and 2020 on the genetic diversity of the grey squirrel population in north Wales. This information can be used to inform future adaptive management plans, increasing the success of invasive species control efforts and enhancing red squirrel conservation efforts. Using a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite DNA analysis, we found high genetic diversity in both marker types, with six diverse mtDNA haplotypes found and relatively high levels of nuclear genetic diversity, even after repeated culling efforts. We also found that repeated introductions from multiple locations in North America have generated a genetically diverse population in Britain today, compounding the management of this invasive species. Our results suggest that ongoing grey squirrel control efforts may not adequately reduce genetic diversity to a level where it contributes to a long-term population decline, and highlights the need to gather all available information, including historical and contemporary, to effectively create a plan for control efforts of invasive species

Testing Above- and Below-Canopy Representations of Turbulent Fluxes in an Energy Balance Snowmelt Model

Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are important processes in the surface energy balance that drives snowmelt. Modeling these fluxes in a forested environment is complicated because of the canopy effects on the wind field. This paper presents and tests a turbulent flux model developed to represent these processes in an energy balance snowmelt model. The goal is to model these processes using the readily available inputs of canopy height and leaf area index in a way that minimizes the number of parameters, state variables, and assumptions about hard to quantify processes. Selected periods from 9 years of eddy-covariance (EC) measurements at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, were used to evaluate the effectiveness of this modeling approach. The model was able to reproduce the above-canopy sensible and latent heat fluxes reasonably with the correlation higher for sensible heat than latent heat. The modeled values of the below-canopy latent heat fluxes also matched the EC-measured values. The model captured the nighttime below-canopy sensible heat flux quite well, but there were discrepancies in daytime sensible heat flux possibly due to mountain slope circulation not quantifiable in this kind of model. Despite the uncertainties in the below-canopy sensible heat fluxes, the results are encouraging and suggest that reasonable predictions of turbulent flux energy exchanges and subsequent vapor losses from snow in forested environments can be obtained with a parsimonious single-layer representation of the canopy. The model contributes an improved physically based capability for predicting the snow accumulation and melt in a forested environment

The South American Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS) 5-Year Retrospective Atmospheric Forcing Datasets

The definition and derivation of a 5-year, 0.125deg, 3-hourly atmospheric forcing dataset for the South America continent is described which is appropriate for use in a Land Data Assimilation System and which, because of the limited surface observational networks available in this region, uses remotely sensed data merged with surface observations as the basis for the precipitation and downward shortwave radiation fields. The quality of this data set is evaluated against available surface observations. There are regional difference in the biases for all variables in the dataset, with biases in precipitation of the order 0-1 mm/day and RMSE of 5-15 mm/day, biases in surface solar radiation of the order 10 W/sq m and RMSE of 20 W/sq m, positive biases in temperature typically between 0 and 4 K, depending on region, and positive biases in specific humidity around 2-3 g/Kg in tropical regions and negative biases around 1-2 g/Kg further south